FCC catalyst demand is determined by the crude oil processing capacity and catalytic unit processing capacity. The development of global crude oil processing capacity is generally on an upward trend, reaching a stage peak in 2019. in 2020, there will be a total of 763 refineries in the world, with an average size of 6.44 million tons/year, and the total refining capacity will be about 4.907 billion tons/year, which is a decrease of 0.6% compared with the highest peak, and the decline will be due to the transformation, upgrading and elimination of outdated production capacity. Among them, the FCC capacity is about 920 million tons/year. Preliminary estimates show that the current demand for FCC catalysts is about 920,000 tons/year. According to the forecast of the relevant consulting organizations, by the end of 2022, the global refining capacity will be increased by 4.8 million barrels/day, with an average growth of about 1.6% per year, and after 2023, with the implementation of new energy vehicles and energy-saving and emission reduction policies, it is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 1.3% in the future. It is expected that the global oil processing capacity will reach about 5.35 billion tons by 2025, of which the catalytic cracking capacity will reach 1 billion tons/year. According to the current average agent consumption level, the global annual demand for FCC catalysts will be around 1 million tons.

The development of China’s oil refining industry is basically consistent with the international development trend. In recent years, China’s oil refining industry has been developing rapidly, and the refining and processing capacity has been growing year by year, and by the end of 2022, the refining and processing capacity will reach 860 million tons/year. According to preliminary statistics, there are more than 180 sets of catalytic cracking units in operation, with a catalytic processing capacity of 216 million tons/year and an annual demand of 200,000 tons of FCC catalyst. According to the estimation of projects under construction, approved construction and planning, the refining capacity will rise to 1.02 billion tons/year in 2025, of which the FCC capacity will reach 256 million tons/year, and the demand for FCC catalysts will reach 257,000 tons/year at that time.

Currently, the world’s major FCC catalyst suppliers include Grace Davison, Sinopec Catalysts Co. These companies constitute the world’s major FCC catalyst suppliers, with a total production capacity of about 1.1 million tons/year. From the comparison of supply and demand, it can be found that at present, China’s total domestic FCC catalyst production capacity is 450,000 tons/year, and China’s domestic market demand is about 250,000 tons/year, the total production capacity is much larger than the total demand; from the global point of view, the total production capacity of 1.1 million tons/year of FCC catalysts, and the global demand is about 920,000 tons/year, the total production capacity is larger than the total demand, and the overcapacity has become indisputable, and FCC catalysts have ushered in the Global competition.